Why Blatter's War of Words with England is Unsurprising

We at Sports Intelligence Analysts aren’t surprised by what has now become a full-scale war of words between Sepp Blatter and the English Football Association (see news reports here and here). As we reported to some of our private clients prior to the World Cup announcement, our behavioral analysis of Blatter determined that there is more to this story that will unfold in the coming weeks and months, and that more questions need to be asked. Here’s what we reported:

On November 19, FIFA President Sepp Blatter made a public statement announcing the results of FIFA’s investigation into the corruption scandal involving alleged collusion and/or or “votes for sale,” as reported in the Sunday Times. Despite Blatter’s declaration that the investigation was a success, the behavior he exhibited as he made the statement strongly suggests otherwise.

For example, as he attempted to reassure FIFA followers of the success of the investigation, Blatter exhibited a significant cluster of deceptive indicators, including his qualified pronouncement that with its investigation, FIFA had “the opportunity to clean a little bit, whatever has to be cleaned.” His use of the qualifier “little bit” suggests that the investigation had not resolved all of the issues surrounding the alleged corruption related to the bidding process for hosting the World Cup in 2018 and 2022.

His subsequent commentary included a lengthy series of convincing statements that appeared to be a concerted effort on Blatter’s part to convince the FIFA family that it should not have any concerns about the results of the investigation, and that the voting process will be totally above board. He went so far as to remark that “all doubts can be cast aside” about the voting process. It is noteworthy that this did not track with other commentary by Blatter, which included this statement: "You cannot avoid collusion, but if in such collusion there should be something wrong, then naturally somebody would intervene." With this statement, Blatter is clearly signaling the possibility of yet more problems to come with the bidding process.

Despite his effort in his public statement to allay the fears and concerns regarding the integrity of the impending World Cup vote, Blatter’s behavior indicates his awareness of the potential for continued collusion among the voting members of the selection committee, and the recognition that FIFA can do little to prevent such collusion. Overall, the high volume and significance of the deceptive behavior seen in Blatter’s public statement reflect a tremendous amount of uncertainty on his part (as of Nov.19) as to which country will be selected as the host of the 2022 World Cup. Furthermore, his behavior reflects his expectation that regardless of the selection, the integrity of the vote and the overall selection process will remain tainted, and the controversy will continue.