It has been a couple of weeks since the NFL learned of the arrest of Denver Broncos rookie cornerback Perrish Cox, and the filing of criminal charges against Cox for sexual assault stemming from allegations dating back to October. Our analysis of the case suggests that Cox did indeed engage in the behavior for which he is being charged, which leads us to wonder why NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has taken no action in the case.
The full affidavit remains sealed, but according to the initial criminal complaint, Cox is alleged to have assaulted an unnamed woman who was physically helpless and incapable of appraising what was happening. Cox’s comment on the charges is limited to his statement, “I really can’t speak on what was going on. It happened, and hopefully it will be over soon.”
Cox’s failure to deny the charges, and his lack of elaboration on what he meant with his statement that “it happened,” are indicators, in our opinion, that the charges against him very likely have merit. The seriousness of the matter can’t be overstated: If convicted, Cox faces up to life in prison.
The fact that the charges have not led to a suspension by Goodell raises the question of why Goodell sees this case as differing from the case of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, whom Goodell suspended for six games. While it’s reasonable to conclude that Goodell is waiting to hear more evidence against Cox before hitting him with a suspension, it’s unclear why. Goodell appeared to have made his decision in the Roethlisberger case based on the information in the police report, so we’re left to question his reasoning for not taking the same approach in the Cox case, especially given Cox’s acknowledgement that “it happened.” (Below, we have appended our July 2009 analysis of Roethlisberger’s behavior the first time he was charged with sexual assault, as an illustration of what we look for in cases of this type.)
As time has passed since Cox’s arrest, a number of questions have arisen. Given that the alleged assault occurred on or about Sept. 6 and wasn’t reported until Oct. 28, many have asked why it took the alleged victim so long to file her complaint. In what way was she physically helpless? What role might she have played in the activity?
Not surprisingly, those questions have led some in the media to shift the blame away from Cox and to attack the alleged victim. Yet Cox’s simple statement that “it happened” speaks volumes. It doesn’t matter what a person’s previous behavior or activity might have been. It doesn’t matter whether a person has been wined and dined all day, or all week. It doesn’t even matter if a person is being paid by the hour for her company. No means no. And certainly, if someone is incapable of stopping a person’s sexual advances, anyone – celebrity, sports figure, lawyer, judge or plumber – should recognize that incapacity means no, too.
July 24, 2009
Sexual Assault Case Likely to Haunt Roethlisberger, Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s denial of allegations in the Andrea McNulty sexual assault case is unlikely to be a full disclosure of his behavior in the matter. The case might well become a midseason distraction for the team, our analysis shows.
In a prepared statement delivered yesterday at the Steelers’ training facility, Roethlisberger categorically denied accusations that he had sexually assaulted McNulty, a Harrah’s casino hostess, in a Las Vegas hotel room. He vowed to fight the charges.
"I did not sexually assault Andrea McNulty. Saturday was the first that I learned of her accusations. Her false and vicious allegations are an attack on my family and on me. I would never, ever force myself on a woman,” Roethlisberger said in the statement. “I will respond to her outrageous allegations in the appropriate forum. …The allegations against me are reckless and false. As much as I'd like to answer everyone's questions, I'm going to respect the legal process and I am confident that the truth will prevail."
The denial appeared to be credible to many observers, including Lester Munson, a senior writer and legal analyst at ESPN. The statement “sounded like a very good denial,” Munson said in an interview. However, we have found reason to believe that Roethlisberger may not have been totally forthcoming.
Our analysis is based on several behavioral indicators, including Roethlisberger’s opening claim that he “did not sexually assault Andrea McNulty.” Explicitly denying sexual assault suggests that some other type of assault or physical altercation may have taken place. We note with particular interest that Roethlisberger went on to attack McNulty directly as someone who would knowingly make allegations that are not only “false and vicious,” but “outrageous” and “reckless.”
We have found that whereas innocent individuals almost always direct their attention to the factual circumstances of the situation, guilty parties tend to focus on undermining the credibility of the accuser. We have therefore concluded that Roethlisberger’s statement appears to be more of an attempt to convince his fans, teammates and NFL officials that McNulty is lying, than a factual argument that he is not culpable in the matter.
The last time Steelers fans had reason to be concerned about the playing status of their star quarterback was in 2006, when his preseason motorcycle accident made it questionable that he would be ready to play in the opening game of the regular season. In that case, Roethlisberger not only recovered in time for the opener, but went on to lead the Steelers to victory in the Super Bowl.
In this case, Roethlisberger’s denial is likely to at least temporarily calm the waters. However, because of the likelihood that Roethlisberger appeared not to be completely forthcoming in his denial, additional facts in the case may well surface and create a distraction that would be detrimental to the Steelers’ performance. A feverish attempt by Roethlisberger’s legal team to reach an out of court settlement with McNulty would be unsurprising, and McNulty’s chances of maintaining the upper hand in the case should not be discounted.
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