Attention Turns to NFL Lockout Next Year

This NFL season has been so exciting that many diehard football fans haven’t really thought much about the prospects for a lockout next year. Now, as both the players and the owners dial up the heat and rhetoric, this issue will gradually take center stage.

“We continue to see steps being taken by the league to prepare for that lockout," said DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the NFL Players Association, as quoted in today’s Washington Post. Smith also claimed to have told the players to “prepare for and expect a lockout.” According to the Post article, the NFL owners are scheduled to meet in Dallas today to discuss the situation.

It’s truly amazing that all of this is happening as we approach the end of one of the most enjoyable NFL seasons in the sport’s history. Arguably, the league has never seen such parity, as evidenced by the very real chance that a team from the NFC West Division is likely to win that division with a losing record. In addition, television ratings for several key games have broken records -- a testament to the excitement that has been generated by developments such as the reemergence of Michael Vick.

We have been closely monitoring the lockout issue for some time. The behavioral alarm sounded last February, when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addressed the issue at his Super Bowl press conference, and tried to allay fears that a work stoppage could not be avoided.

Despite his efforts to convince fans not to worry, his behavior revealed how very worried and concerned he was himself. As this issue heats up over the coming weeks, we will continue to follow the negotiations and analyze the commentary from both sides. In the meantime, here is our analysis of Goodell’s commentary from his February press conference, in which we concluded that the lockout was more likely than Goodell was admitting:

In his annual pre-Super Bowl address and press conference on Friday , NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell tried hard to allay fears that league owners will impose a player lockout in 2011. But our analysis of Goodell’s behavior suggests he’s not nearly as confident that a lockout or work stoppage can be avoided as he would like the fans to believe.

The first indicator of Goodell’s concern arose when he addressed a reporter’s suggestion that the NFL Players Association believes that the league and the owners “are taking a series of steps designed more not to play football in 2011.” Goodell’s initial response was firm.

“The idea that ownership would be anxious for a work stoppage is absolutely false,” he said. “The ownership and I believe the players -- in talking to individual players -- want to get an agreement and want to work to do that.”

Notably, however, Goodell added the statement, “We are currently committed to do that.” Use of the phrase “currently committed” is a behavioral tripwire that suggests Goodell may already be worried that he and the owners will have to change their strategy. That change could mean taking the opposite tack, and letting the players proceed with a work stoppage that in essence would become a test of will.

Reporters subsequently sought Goodell’s response to NFLPA Executive Director DeMaurice Smith’s highly publicized statement that on a scale of 1 to 10, the likelihood of a lockout is a “14.”

“We need to take advantage of the opportunity we have right now,” Goodell said, “to structure an agreement and sit down and negotiate.”

Goodell’s use of the qualifier “right now” is another signal that the league’s strategy may well change. In further response to Smith’s assessment, Goodell also stated, “I couldn’t make that prediction, and I sure hope he’s wrong. I sure hope it doesn’t become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, we don’t need a lot of focus on that.”

From a behavioral standpoint, it’s noteworthy that Goodell made no effort to categorically refute Smith’s assertion. Rather, he used the qualifying phrases of “hope” that Smith is wrong and that his prediction won’t be self-fulfilling.

Goodell’s unintended message is that he recognizes that the two sides are much further apart in their negotiations than most fans realize, and that the chances of a lockout are much higher than he’s willing to publicly acknowledge at this time.