NCAA’s Sanctions Against UNC Likely to Hinge on Head Coach

The University of North Carolina’s football program was hit hard this season by an NCAA investigation that began over the summer and continues today. Tar Heel fans have two key questions about the investigation: What will be the extent of the sanctions levied as a result? And will Butch Davis survive as head coach?

The answers to both questions will almost certainly come down to how much Davis knew, and what, if any, involvement he had in the activities under investigation. When one of our readers asked us to look into the UNC matter, we went back to the very beginning of the affair to begin searching for the answers.

When it comes to acts of wrongdoing, the richest and often most revealing behavioral analysis is typically found in the initial commentary of the individual under investigation. With that in mind, we began by focusing our scrutiny on Coach Davis’ early comments on the investigation. Our assessment of some of those early remarks yielded three behavioral factors that are troublesome. If our analysis is correct, it does not bode well for the future of UNC football.

1. Our concerns centered around the fact that in his earliest comments, Davis made some remarks that hinted at more significant knowledge or involvement in the matters under investigation. For example, referring to the investigation, he said, "It certainly kind of came out of left field." If we look at this remark literally, does it not mean he wasn’t totally surprised by the matter? Continuing with the question of surprise, commenting on the issue of potential academic violations later during the investigation, Davis said, "To be honest with you, I think we're a little surprised and possibly disappointed." Once again, why was Davis only a “little” surprised? Was it because this issue was, in fact, not a complete surprise? Also, why did Davis dress up his comment with “to be honest with you,” a phrase that our experience has shown is commonly used by individuals who aren’t being completely forthright?

2. Equally important from a behavioral standpoint is the absence of any consistent, strong denials by Davis that he was involved in or knowledgeable of any of the matters under investigation. Granted, it is unlikely we have found and analyzed all of the early commentary by Davis on the matter, however the remarks we did analyze were almost completely devoid of any significant denials. Think of it this way: If the police came knocking on your door and informed you that you were being investigated for something that you knew nothing about and were not involved in, what would you likely say to them? You would naturally be inclined to vociferously proclaim your lack of knowledge or involvement.

3. So if Davis is not making strong, consistent denials, what is he saying? It appears that he is primarily concerned with trying to convince UNC fans and anyone else who will listen that Carolina has a clean program, and no one should be worried about the future. In other words, if I don’t feel comfortable denying involvement, perhaps I might try to convince you to believe me by telling you what a good person I am, and how well we run our program. For example, during the course of the investigation, Davis has been quoted as follows:

• "I know we take a great deal of pride in doing things ethically, honestly. I know the feedback that we've gotten is we're doing everything we can to educate our young people about all kinds of things that have to do with collegiate athletics."
• “Obviously, when you are the head coach, you take on an awful lot of responsibility and you shoulder the responsibility that you are in charge of and things that can be fixed. I think from a big picture standpoint, we’ve done a lot of good things here at Carolina. Kids are graduating. We’ve had two bowl games with two consecutive winning seasons. There is a lot more right at Carolina than there is wrong.”
• ''There's a lot of things that are alleged, that are out there, that I can't begin to tell you whether they are true or not true. What I can tell you is I have told our coaching staff repeatedly over the last three seasons: Do not get involved with coaches, to players, to agents. Do not recommend anybody to anyone."

An additional behavioral point that we find troubling is that others at UNC, including Chancellor Holden Thorp, have also failed to make strong denials on Davis’ behalf. According to a Nov. 4 article on ESPN.com, Thorp said:

"A lot of people have looked for a long time, and no one's found anything that makes me think Butch shouldn't be the coach. … We're all asking ourselves: What could we have done to have caught this sooner? That's critically important in making sure this doesn't happen again. I know it's a really hot question on people's minds whether we have found anything that showed Coach Davis knew anything about this, and we haven't."

It’s noteworthy that Thorpe did not say that Davis wasn’t involved, only that they hadn’t yet found anything that incriminates him.

So what does all of this mean for Davis? Thorpe is clearly keeping his options open in that regard. But barring a finding of direct involvement, as opposed to a loss of control, Thorpe’s supportive comments indicate that Davis will likely survive.

And what does it mean for UNC? Based on our analysis, we would be unsurprised to see the NCAA levy tough sanctions against Carolina, akin to those handed down to USC earlier this year. Those sanctions included a two-year bowl ban, a loss of scholarships, and game forfeitures. Tar Heel fans have good reason to be concerned.