NFL vs. NFLPA: Will a Referee Make It a Fair Fight?

ESPN is reporting this morning that the NFL and the NFLPA have agreed to enter into mediation facilitated by the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, an independent U.S. government agency. ESPN NFL analyst John Clayton characterized the development as bringing in a mediator to “referee” the negotiations.

We at Sports Intelligence Analysts agree with Clayton’s “referee” metaphor. As we reported yesterday, the negotiations had turned into a slugfest. While the arrival of a “referee” is a positive development, we think both sides are a long way from settling their differences. At the heart of the problem is the simple fact that owners want a far greater share of the estimated $8.9 billion of annual revenue. Under the current agreement the owners receive $1 billion and would like to double that share to $2 billion.

In addition, the owners want to see implementation of a rookie wage scale and expansion to an 18-game season. The problem with this negotiation is that the demands are, by and large, one-sided. From a behavioral standpoint, it is the most difficult kind of negotiation to resolve because compromise means that preventing a lockout requires the NFLPA to concede on at least one or more of the issues that it is vehemently opposed to.

In simplest of terms, success for the NFLPA will be measured by how successful it is in minimizing its losses in the negotiating process. The problem is that the NFLPA has little leverage. Its normal leverage would have been the threat of a strike, however the owners and league have preempted that option with their threat of a lockout. Success for the NFLPA will be measured by how much or how little it loses. It will be interesting to see which of its demands the league and owners will be willing to offer the players as a concession.

Bottom line: Psychologically, this situation is difficult for the players to swallow, in that the NFLPA will eventually have to make significant concessions in order to prevent a lockout. The problem: Players don’t like to lose, and they will likely go down fighting. That means, barring an unexpected major concession, the probability of a lockout is still high.